The meme coin market is back in the spotlight, and this time, PEPE is leading the charge. Over the past four days, PEPE has surged by more than 55%, reaching levels not seen since early January 2025. But while this rally has sparked enthusiasm across the crypto community, there are growing concerns that this might be another setup for a painful correction.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening with PEPE and whether investors should brace for more gains or a potential trap.
A Sudden Surge: PEPE Climbs to 4-Month High
PEPE began its latest rally after dipping to a local low of $0.0000075. Since then, the token has steadily climbed, hitting a 4-month high of $0.0000139. At the time of writing, PEPE was trading at $0.0000132, which still reflects a strong 55.82% weekly gain, even though it has slipped slightly by 2.05% in the past 24 hours.
The rally appears to be fueled by intense buying pressure, particularly from large holders, commonly referred to as whales.
Whale Activity Mirrors Historic Patterns
According to data from IntoTheBlock, whales accumulated a staggering 21.18 trillion PEPE tokens in just 24 hours. This level of accumulation has only been seen a few times in PEPE’s history, most notably in November 2024 and January 2025.
Both of those previous whale accumulation phases were followed by sharp price corrections. For instance:
- In late November 2024, PEPE reached $0.00002525 after its RSI hit 88.
- In December, the token briefly soared to a new all-time high before collapsing to just $0.0000052—a steep decline that burned many short-term investors.
The current whale activity has pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) up to 83, firmly in the “overbought” zone. This typically signals that a pullback or trend exhaustion may be imminent.
Are We Headed Toward Another Correction?
The high RSI reading is one of the biggest warning signs for PEPE at the moment. Whenever the RSI exceeds 80, it indicates extreme buying pressure, often followed by selling as early investors take profit.
While the price momentum has remained strong in recent days, there was a noticeable drop over the past 24 hours—a signal that a short-term pullback may already be starting.
However, there’s another indicator that’s giving hope to the bulls: Exchange Flow Balance.
Exchange Flow Suggests Investors Are Holding
On-chain data reveals that PEPE’s Exchange Flow Balance currently stands at -35.8 billion tokens, indicating a significant net withdrawal from exchanges. In simple terms, more PEPE tokens are being moved out of trading platforms than being deposited. This behavior is often interpreted as a strong bullish signal, especially in volatile markets like memecoins.
Why does this matter? When investors withdraw tokens from exchanges, they typically do so with the intent to hold them in private wallets, rather than preparing to sell. This reduces the available supply on trading platforms and often points to a belief that prices will continue to rise. In contrast, heavy deposit activity can indicate that investors are looking to offload their holdings, which puts downward pressure on prices.
This pattern of accumulation aligns with the broader sentiment that, despite growing concerns about an overheated market, many holders still see more upside potential for PEPE. Even as technical indicators like the RSI flash warnings of overbought conditions, the exchange flow tells a more optimistic story: a community that is confident, not panicking.
Momentum Remains Strong
Beyond exchange flows and RSI readings, other momentum indicators continue to show strength in PEPE’s current trend. One such tool is the Directional Movement Index (DMI), which is particularly helpful in gauging the intensity of a trend and distinguishing between bullish and bearish pressure.
- +DI (Positive Directional Indicator): 46
- –DI (Negative Directional Indicator): 25
The wide gap between these two values suggests that buying momentum is decisively outweighing selling pressure. A +DI reading this high, especially when it’s nearly double the -DI, confirms that bulls are still firmly in control of the trend. This supports the view that the ongoing rally could extend further if no major resistance is encountered in the near term.
When combined with the negative exchange flow, this upward momentum paints a compelling picture: PEPE remains in an aggressive uptrend, supported by real investor conviction, not just short-term hype.
Short-Term Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
As PEPE continues to attract attention, here are the key price levels to monitor in the coming days:
- Resistance at $0.000014 – This is the next short-term target. A clean break above could open the path to $0.000016.
- Support at $0.0000107 – If PEPE begins to fall, this is the likely area where it may find buying interest again.
If the current momentum holds, PEPE could reclaim higher levels and potentially retest its previous all-time highs. But if history repeats and the RSI continues to climb unchecked, we could see another dramatic correction similar to late 2024.
PEPE’s 55% rise in just four days is impressive, but it comes with a familiar pattern: heavy whale accumulation, high RSI, and a risk of trend reversal. While technical indicators like exchange flows and DMI suggest continued strength, investors should remain cautious.
The memecoin sector is volatile by nature. PEPE may still offer big upside in the short term, but history shows that sharp rallies often end just as quickly as they begin.
For those considering jumping in, it’s critical to watch the charts closely, manage risk carefully, and be aware that whale-driven pumps can just as easily turn into traps.
