The cryptocurrency market continues to react sharply to regulatory developments and macroeconomic events. XRP has once again captured investor attention following a key legal milestone, while Bitcoin remains strong above the $100,000 mark amid global trade uncertainty. Here’s a detailed look into the latest developments shaping the crypto landscape.
Ripple Settlement Spurs XRP Rally
On Thursday, May 8, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submitted a court filing regarding its long-standing legal battle with Ripple. The market reacted swiftly. By Friday, May 9, XRP surged to a six-week high of $2.4273, posting a 9.44% rally the day before and an additional 0.70% gain that Friday. The rally reflected renewed optimism among traders who viewed the proposed settlement as a positive step toward regulatory clarity.
However, not everyone within the SEC shared that optimism.
Crenshaw’s Dissent Reveals SEC Divisions
Democratic SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw issued a strong dissent, criticizing the proposed resolution with Ripple. She warned that the deal could significantly weaken the SEC’s crypto enforcement framework and investor protections:
“This settlement, alongside the programmatic disassembly of the SEC’s crypto enforcement program, does a tremendous disservice to the investing public and undermines the court’s role in interpreting our securities laws. This is not a settlement I can support.”
Crenshaw also voiced concerns that the SEC was dismantling its own enforcement program from the inside. Her comments echoed broader political divisions around crypto regulation, especially following changes in the agency’s leadership.
Notably, Crenshaw’s stance came after the U.S. Senate Banking Committee blocked her renomination back in December, effectively ending her tenure. Her dissent highlights the political rift within the SEC and signals potential policy shifts under a new administration.
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan responded with criticism:
“Imagine saying this even now after almost 80,000 investors you supposedly purport to protect joined in support of Amici curiae against you.”
Next Steps in the Ripple Legal Process
According to U.S. attorney James Filan, the next phase involves a procedural review. Judge Analisa Torres is expected to issue a preliminary ruling on whether to:
- Dissolve the existing injunction.
- Distribute escrowed funds, with $50 million allocated to the SEC and the remainder returned to Ripple.
If the judge rules in favor of this plan, the SEC and Ripple will jointly request a limited remand from the Second Circuit Court of Appeals to pursue the proposed settlement. Should the court approve, both parties will then file a formal motion to finalize the resolution. This move could ultimately lead to the dismissal of both the SEC’s appeal and Ripple’s cross-appeal, bringing the high-profile case to a close.
XRP Price Outlook: Can It Break $3?
XRP’s current price action remains bullish. Key levels to watch:
- Support: $2.10
- Resistance: $2.50, followed by $3.00
If XRP breaks the $2.50 level, a push toward $3.00 becomes likely. Longer-term, a retest of its all-time high at $3.5505 is possible if favorable legal outcomes and ETF developments continue.
Additional price drivers include:
- Final court rulings in the Ripple case.
- Approval of an XRP-spot ETF.
- Broader macroeconomic news, including U.S.-China trade talks.
- Technical indicators support a bullish outlook on the daily chart.
Bitcoin Remains Steady Above $100,000
While XRP made headlines, Bitcoin (BTC) held firm. On Friday, May 9, BTC closed at $102,852, down just 0.24% after a strong 6.27% rally the day before. Despite minor profit-taking, the market remained resilient thanks to ongoing institutional inflows and anticipation surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.
U.S.-China Trade Talks Add Uncertainty
Tensions between the U.S. and China are once again in focus. President Trump made headlines when he suggested that an 80% tariff on Chinese imports “seems right,” fueling concerns of a prolonged trade war. These talks follow the recently concluded U.S.-UK trade deal, which had already prompted some profit-taking across markets, including crypto.
The central issue remains whether China would reciprocate any U.S. tariff reduction. Until there’s a breakthrough, uncertainty will continue to weigh on global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin Stability
Institutional investment through U.S. Bitcoin-spot ETFs continues to provide a safety net for BTC prices. On May 9, ETF flows were as follows (data from Farside Investors):
- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): +$356.2 million
- Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): +$45 million
- Grayscale & Bitwise combined: -$79.8 million in net outflows
IBIT has now logged nineteen consecutive days of net inflows, underlining BlackRock’s dominant position in the market.
Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, emphasized the significance of stable, long-term institutional holders:
“More stable holders = more stable price. ETFs and [Michael] Saylor have gobbled up tons of BTC ‘dumps’ over the past 15 months.”
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, echoed this sentiment, noting that traditional cycle theories may no longer apply:
“It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory… Institutional inflows and ETFs can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs.”
BTC Price Outlook: Macro and Legislative Factors at Play
Looking ahead, several scenarios could shape BTC’s trajectory:
Bearish Factors:
- Escalating U.S.-China tensions
- Rising inflation or stagflation fears
- Resistance to pro-crypto laws like the Bitcoin Act
- ETF outflows
Bullish Factors:
- A breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks
- Softer inflation data
- Continued ETF inflows
- Legislative progress, including the Bitcoin Act
The Bitcoin Act, reintroduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes that the U.S. acquire one million BTC over five years and hold it for 20 years. If passed, this could significantly reduce the available BTC supply and drive long-term price growth.
What to Watch Going Forward
Investors should closely monitor:
- The court’s decision in the Ripple case.
- ETF inflow trends, particularly from major players like BlackRock and Fidelity.
- Key U.S. economic data, including inflation and trade indicators.
- Developments in crypto legislation, especially around institutional adoption and government strategy.
A favorable ruling for Ripple could ignite a fresh wave of demand for XRP. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s stability hinges on macroeconomic clarity and the continued involvement of institutional investors.
Both assets remain central to the broader narrative of crypto’s integration into traditional finance and global policy. The next few weeks could prove pivotal.
